UK Sure Start Local Programmes
HM Government / Institute for Fiscal Studies · England, United Kingdom · 2010
Summary
The UK's Sure Start evaluation used a regression discontinuity design based on geographic deprivation cutoffs to estimate causal effects on children who had access to integrated early services from birth. Effects on academic performance at age 11 and significant reductions in emergency hospitalizations suggest durable gains from early integrated support. The subsequent closure of most Sure Start centres in austerity cuts provided an unintended natural experiment: IFS researchers found that children in areas with more closures saw reduced gains, supporting the original findings. Sure Start is one of the clearest examples of a policy cut before its long-term evidence base was fully established.
Research question
"Do Sure Start integrated early childhood centres improve child development, health, and educational outcomes?"
Methodology
Intervention
Sure Start Local Programmes provided integrated health, family support, play, and childcare services in disadvantaged areas; access depended on whether a family lived in a Sure Start area
Assignment
Regression discontinuity (eligibility determined by geographic deprivation index cutoff)
Sample size
Hundreds of thousands of children in treatment and comparison areas across England
Primary outcome
Key Stage 1 and 2 test scores; emergency hospitalizations; obesity; special educational needs
Effect estimate
Age 11 test scores: +0.1 SD; emergency hospitalizations: −11%; obesity at age 11: −2.4 pp; special needs referrals: reduced
Decision
Programme significantly cut in 2010 austerity; number of centres fell from 3,600 to under 1,000 by 2018; IFS analysis found closures associated with reversal of gains
Result
Positive
Age 11 test scores: +0.1 SD; emergency hospitalizations: −11%; obesity at age 11: −2.4 pp; special needs referrals: reduced
Evidence strength
Moderate
Quasi-experimental design; causal interpretation requires care.
Replication status
Partially replicated
Institution
HM Government / Institute for Fiscal Studies
Location
England, United Kingdom
Year
2010
Policy area
Early Childhood
Mechanism
Human capital