Stockton SEED Guaranteed Income Pilot
SEED (Stockton Economic Empowerment Demonstration) · Stockton, CA, USA · 2021
Summary
The Stockton SEED experiment was the first randomized evaluation of a guaranteed income in a mid-sized American city. The most counterintuitive finding — subsequently replicated in similar programs — was that unconditional cash increased full-time employment rather than reducing it. Recipients used the income floor to take risks: pursuing interviews, acquiring certifications, leaving part-time jobs for full-time opportunities. The experiment directly tested and rejected the claim that guaranteed income creates dependency. The modest sample size is a limitation; the direction and magnitude of effects are consistent with parallel evidence from Finland and GiveDirectly.
Research question
"Does a monthly guaranteed income improve employment, financial stability, and well-being for low-income residents?"
Methodology
Intervention
125 residents of census tracts at or below median city income received $500/month for 24 months via prepaid debit card with no conditions; 200 control group members
Assignment
Randomized controlled trial (household)
Sample size
125 treatment, 200 control
Primary outcome
Full-time employment rate; income volatility; anxiety/depression measures
Effect estimate
Full-time employment: +28 percentage points over control by month 12; income volatility reduced; anxiety and depression scores improved significantly
Decision
Program ended per design; findings contributed to California state legislation (AB 2588) establishing a guaranteed income pilot framework; 11 cities launched follow-on programs
Result
Positive
Full-time employment: +28 percentage points over control by month 12; income volatility reduced; anxiety and depression scores improved significantly
Evidence strength
Strong
Randomized controlled trial with large sample.
Replication status
Partially replicated
Institution
SEED (Stockton Economic Empowerment Demonstration)
Location
Stockton, CA, USA
Year
2021
Policy area
Cash Transfers
Mechanism
Cash transfer