International DevelopmentCash transferMixed

Impact of Microcredit — Mexico

Compartamos Banco / MIT / Innovations for Poverty Action · Rural Mexico · 2015

Summary

The Compartamos microcredit evaluation was one of seven coordinated randomized evaluations of microcredit conducted under J-PAL auspices. Together they produced a consistent finding: microcredit access does not transform average household incomes. Effects are heterogeneous — existing entrepreneurs benefit more than new ones, and some households use credit to smooth consumption rather than invest. The finding punctured the transformative narrative around microfinance without disproving its value: credit at market rates is useful, but it is not a poverty trap escape mechanism. The Compartamos study is notable for its scale and for the coordinated multi-site design.

Research question

"Does access to microcredit at market rates increase household income and business profits?"

Methodology

Intervention

Random expansion of credit access through Compartamos group lending program to previously unserved areas

Assignment

Randomized controlled trial (geographic market expansion)

Sample size

17,046 households in 238 communities

Primary outcome

Household income; business profits; female empowerment; consumption

Effect estimate

No significant effect on average household income or consumption; business investment increased for existing entrepreneurs; female-run businesses showed modest profit gains

Decision

Finding contributed to 'tempered expectations' consensus on microcredit; shifted development finance toward complementary services

Result

Mixed

No significant effect on average household income or consumption; business investment increased for existing entrepreneurs; female-run businesses showed modest profit gains

Evidence strength

Strong

Randomized trial, replicated across multiple sites or studies.

Replication status

Replicated

Institution

Compartamos Banco / MIT / Innovations for Poverty Action

Location

Rural Mexico

Year

2015

Policy area

International Development

Mechanism

Cash transfer