Brazil Bolsa Família Conditional Cash Transfer
World Bank / IPEA / Brazilian Ministry of Social Development · Brazil · 2007
Summary
Brazil's Bolsa Família is the world's largest conditional cash transfer programme and one of the most studied. The regression discontinuity design using the per-capita income eligibility cutoff provides credible estimates: families just below the threshold — statistically similar to those just above it — showed significantly better school enrollment, vaccination rates, and food consumption. The programme's contribution to Brazil's dramatic poverty reduction during the 2000s has been extensively documented, with causal attribution using multiple identification strategies producing consistent findings. Like other CCT evaluations, Bolsa Família raises questions about the necessity of conditionality: similar gains have been found in unconditional programs, suggesting the cash rather than the behavioral requirements drives most effects.
Research question
"Does a large-scale national CCT program reduce poverty and improve human capital outcomes for children in extreme poverty?"
Methodology
Intervention
Monthly cash transfers to poor families conditional on school enrollment and vaccination: approximately R$95–R$305/month depending on family composition and poverty level; supplemental food stamps for families in extreme poverty
Assignment
Regression discontinuity (per-capita income eligibility cutoff)
Sample size
Approximately 13 million families (2007); grew to 21 million by 2022
Primary outcome
Poverty headcount; school enrollment; childhood vaccination; food consumption; income
Effect estimate
Child school enrollment: +4 pp; vaccination: +3 pp; household food consumption: +16% for extreme poor; poverty headcount: contributed to 29% reduction in extreme poverty 2002–2011 (program component)
Decision
Programme sustained and expanded over 20+ years across different governments; merged with other programs into Auxílio Brasil (2021) then restored as Bolsa Família (2023); serves as the international template for national CCT design
Result
Positive
Child school enrollment: +4 pp; vaccination: +3 pp; household food consumption: +16% for extreme poor; poverty headcount: contributed to 29% reduction in extreme poverty 2002–2011 (program component)
Evidence strength
Moderate
Quasi-experimental design with replication support.
Replication status
Replicated
Institution
World Bank / IPEA / Brazilian Ministry of Social Development
Location
Brazil
Year
2007
Policy area
International Development
Mechanism
Cash transfer